Social and Transmission Contact Network Analysis of Epidemic Dynamics in Agent-Based Models

Huang, Jiawei (2012) Social and Transmission Contact Network Analysis of Epidemic Dynamics in Agent-Based Models. Master's Thesis, University of Pittsburgh. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

This thesis aims to do social network analysis on synthetic population that is used in FRED system and develop transmission network analysis tools to analyze disease epidemic dynamics in agent-based models of infectious disease.

The social network of synthetic Allegheny County population consists 1.2M agents. The synthetic population is proved to be an integrated component with average shortest path is 6.91. The risks of being infected for age groups are positively related to the average degree of each group. Although degree distribution has bifurcating pattern, it is still reasonable and conservative to use the synthetic population for modeling disease transmission.

Tools are developed to analyze the transmission network, which generated by FRED simulations. Three tools, TraceAnalysis, StatisticalAnalysis and EpidemicDynamicPlot, were developed to calculate statistics of transmission networks, to make inference on statistics from different simulation scenarios and to plot epidemic curves. The tools are used to analyze the effectiveness of public policies. School closure and vaccination policies were chosen from FRED to be compared with the baseline FRED, which is run with no intervention policy. The results from network analysis tools indicate the dependency between agents' infection location. Special transmission patterns can be found by comparing the discrepancy between the number and expected number of transmission patterns.

The public health importance of network analysis tools is to find out the contact tracing motifs, to reveal the strong dependency of locations where infection events happened and to compare the effectiveness of different public intervention policies in agent-based models.

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Details

Item Type:	University of Pittsburgh ETD
Status:	Unpublished
Creators/Authors:	Creators Email Pitt Username ORCID Huang, Jiawei jih49@pitt.edu JIH49
ETD Committee:	Title Member Email Address Pitt Username ORCID Committee Chair Marsh, Gary gmarsh@pitt.edu GMARSH Committee Member Grefenstette, John gref@pitt.edu GREF Committee Member Guclu, Hasan guclu@pitt.edu GUCLU Committee Member Lee, Bruce byl1@pitt.edu BYL1
Date:	30 January 2012
Date Type:	Publication
Defense Date:	8 December 2011
Approval Date:	30 January 2012
Submission Date:	25 November 2011
Access Restriction:	No restriction; Release the ETD for access worldwide immediately.
Number of Pages:	122
Institution:	University of Pittsburgh
Schools and Programs:	School of Public Health > Biostatistics
Degree:	MS - Master of Science
Thesis Type:	Master's Thesis
Refereed:	Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Transmission network analysis, agent-based model
Date Deposited:	30 Jan 2012 21:01
Last Modified:	13 Mar 2019 17:32
URI:	http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/10818

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