GERDES, LUKE M.
(2012)
ON THE EDGE OF AL-QAIDA? ASSESSING AL-QAIDA'S CHANGING ROLE IN TERRORIST PLOTS AND ATTACKS.
Doctoral Dissertation, University of Pittsburgh.
(Unpublished)
Abstract
This dissertation investigates changes in the extent and nature of al-Qaida’s involvement in Salafist-motivated terrorism over time. It makes use of an original, hand-coded dataset that examines relationships among individuals involved in terror events in order to build a formal network-based model of violent extremist organizations’ membership. These designations serve as the basis for a procedure that estimates the extent of organizations’ functional involvement in more than 500 completed terror attacks, as well as approximately 180 incomplete terror plots. According to these quantitative estimates, al-Qaida’s role in Islamist terrorism is far less substantial than often assumed by the press and policy makers, but in order to more fully explore changes in the organization’s pattern of involvement in terrorism, the study’s quantitative findings also served as a metric for the selection of qualitative cases, which were examined using structured-focused comparison. This narrative assessment reinforced the conclusions of the quantitative estimate, and found that the quality and capability of al-Qaida’s operatives has steadily declined over time, even as the depth of al-Qaida’s involvement with so-called partner organizations has waned. Because al-Qaida is not the global Islamist juggernaut it is often portrayed to be, the United States’ already well-designed counterterrorism strategy requires minor amendment in order to better target the myriad terror groups that comprise the contemporary Islamist threat.
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Details
| Item Type: |
University of Pittsburgh ETD
|
| Status: |
Unpublished |
| Creators/Authors: |
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| ETD Committee: |
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| Date: |
27 September 2012 |
| Date Type: |
Publication |
| Defense Date: |
3 May 2012 |
| Approval Date: |
27 September 2012 |
| Submission Date: |
14 August 2012 |
| Access Restriction: |
2 year -- Restrict access to University of Pittsburgh for a period of 2 years. |
| Number of Pages: |
1886 |
| Institution: |
University of Pittsburgh |
| Schools and Programs: |
Graduate School of Public and International Affairs > Public and International Affairs |
| Degree: |
PhD - Doctor of Philosophy |
| Thesis Type: |
Doctoral Dissertation |
| Refereed: |
Yes |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: |
AL-QAIDA, AL-QAEDA, TERRORISM, EXTREMISM, VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS, NETWORK ANALYSIS |
| Date Deposited: |
27 Sep 2012 16:58 |
| Last Modified: |
15 Nov 2016 14:02 |
| URI: |
http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/13573 |
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