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Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults

Rodondi, N and Locatelli, I and Aujesky, D and Butler, J and Vittinghoff, E and Simonsick, E and Satterfield, S and Newman, AB and Wilson, PWF and Pletcher, MJ and Bauer, DC (2012) Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults. PLoS ONE, 7 (3).

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Abstract

Background: Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS. Methods: Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization. Results: During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS. Conclusions: The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk. © 2012 Rodondi et al.


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Details

Item Type: Article
Status: Published
Creators/Authors:
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Rodondi, N
Locatelli, I
Aujesky, D
Butler, J
Vittinghoff, E
Simonsick, E
Satterfield, S
Newman, ABNewmanA@edc.pitt.eduANEWMAN
Wilson, PWF
Pletcher, MJ
Bauer, DC
Contributors:
ContributionContributors NameEmailPitt UsernameORCID
EditorZhang, WeiliUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date: 28 March 2012
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: PLoS ONE
Volume: 7
Number: 3
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1371/journal.pone.0034287
Schools and Programs: Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Refereed: Yes
MeSH Headings: African Americans; Aged; Blood Pressure; Cholesterol--blood; Cholesterol, HDL--blood; Cohort Studies; Coronary Disease--diagnosis; Coronary Disease--prevention & control; Diabetes Complications; European Continental Ancestry Group; Female; Follow-Up Studies; Humans; Male; Predictive Value of Tests; Risk Factors; Smoking
Other ID: NLM PMC3314613
PubMed Central ID: PMC3314613
PubMed ID: 22470551
Date Deposited: 24 Sep 2012 20:05
Last Modified: 02 Feb 2019 14:55
URI: http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/14163

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