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Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics

Stark, JH and Cummings, DAT and Ermentrout, B and Ostroff, S and Sharma, R and Stebbins, S and Burke, DS and Wisniewski, SR (2012) Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics. PLoS ONE, 7 (8).

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Background: Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. Methodology and Findings: We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. Conclusions: These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales. © 2012 Stark et al.


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Item Type: Article
Status: Published
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Stark, JH
Cummings, DAT
Ermentrout, B
Ostroff, S
Sharma, Rrks1946@pitt.eduRKS1946
Stebbins, S
Burke, DSdonburke@pitt.eduDONBURKE
Wisniewski, SRSTEVEWIS@pitt.eduSTEVEWIS
ContributionContributors NameEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Date: 16 August 2012
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: PLoS ONE
Volume: 7
Number: 8
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1371/journal.pone.0043528
Schools and Programs: Graduate School of Public Health > Behavioral and Community Health Sciences
Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Refereed: Yes
Other ID: NLM PMC3420894
PubMed Central ID: PMC3420894
PubMed ID: 22916274
Date Deposited: 18 Oct 2012 20:52
Last Modified: 18 May 2020 13:56


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