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Modeling the Effects of Using an Electronic Demand Forecasting Tool on Vaccine Availability in Agadez, Niger During Population Increases

Mueller, Leslie E. (2012) Modeling the Effects of Using an Electronic Demand Forecasting Tool on Vaccine Availability in Agadez, Niger During Population Increases. Master Essay, University of Pittsburgh.

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Abstract

It is difficult to correctly forecast the demand for vaccines in countries with highly migrant and therefore fluctuating populations, such as Niger. An electronic demand forecasting tool could have public health relevance as a means of increasing vaccinations by accurately forecasting vaccine demand in these areas. The electronic nature of this tool would allow rapid transmission of information to achieve this goal. HERMES (Highly Extensible Resource for Modeling Supply Chains) was used to develop a model of the Niger vaccine supply chain and simulate the effects of increasing the population in the Agadez Region on vaccine availability with and without the tool. When the tool was applied during a 50% population increase, vaccine availability decreased and missed vaccination opportunities increased compared to when the region was not aware of the population increase when ordering vaccines. This demonstrates that use of this tool alone may not always be appropriate. However, when storage and transport capacities were increased, only single dose vials were used, and the ordering buffer was removed, use of the tool improved vaccine availability by 26% and resulted in 29,482 fewer missed vaccination opportunities. An electronic demand forecasting tool may not be appropriate in all situations but, when used under appropriate conditions, can help vaccine supply chains cope with population fluctuations and allow a maximum number of people to be vaccinated, decreasing mortality and morbidity.


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Details

Item Type: Other Thesis, Dissertation, or Long Paper (Master Essay)
Status: Unpublished
Creators/Authors:
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Mueller, Leslie E.
Contributors:
ContributionContributors NameEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Committee ChairMertz, Kristen J.MertzK@edc.pitt.eduKJM40UNSPECIFIED
Committee MemberLee, Bruce Ybyl1@pitt.eduBYL1UNSPECIFIED
Committee MemberNorman, Bryan Abanorman@engr.pitt.eduBANORMANUNSPECIFIED
Date: December 2012
Date Type: Publication
Access Restriction: No restriction; Release the ETD for access worldwide immediately.
Publisher: University of Pittsburgh
Institution: University of Pittsburgh
Schools and Programs: Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Degree: MPH - Master of Public Health
Thesis Type: Master Essay
Refereed: Yes
Date Deposited: 08 Feb 2013 15:08
Last Modified: 02 Sep 2019 12:55
URI: http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/16989

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