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The Relationship Between Local Temperature Range and Annual Seasonality of Measles in the United States: 1924 - 1948

Jenkins, Erin Maureen (2012) The Relationship Between Local Temperature Range and Annual Seasonality of Measles in the United States: 1924 - 1948. Master Essay, University of Pittsburgh.

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Measles epidemics exhibit annual seasonality in which epidemics start in the autumn and peak in the spring. Current theories regarding factors driving seasonal transmission fail to fully account for historical observations from as far back as the 17th century. In this study, we explored the potential influence of annual climate cycles in driving measles seasonality. Data was used from 72 United States cities which range across a large range of climate types. Local temperature range was used as the indicator of climate seasonality and the relationship between this factor and measles epidemics across the US was assessed using wavelet analysis as well as more direct methods of comparison. Synchrony of epidemics among cities was assessed by using wavelet techniques to reconstruct the annual signal of measles time series data and by calculating the mean cumulative progression of epidemics for all cities. A high level of synchrony was seen among all cities and the year-to-year variability that was observed had no association with local temperature range. Local wavelet spectrum analysis was used to compare dominant periodicities among the cities. Great variability of dominant periodicity was observed but showed no obvious association with local temperature range. Establishing the relationship between measles seasonality and climate contributes to public health by adding to the information on the biology of the measles virus and by increasing our understanding of the key mechanisms driving measles transmission. This information can be used to develop early warning systems and to tailor vaccination programs for communities which continue to experience regular epidemics around the world.


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Item Type: Other Thesis, Dissertation, or Long Paper (Master Essay)
Status: Unpublished
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Jenkins, Erin Maureen
ContributionContributors NameEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Committee ChairVan Panhuis, Willem Gwav10@pitt.eduWAV10UNSPECIFIED
Committee MemberBain, Daniel Jdbain@pitt.eduDBAINUNSPECIFIED
Date: 14 December 2012
Date Type: Publication
Access Restriction: No restriction; Release the ETD for access worldwide immediately.
Publisher: University of Pittsburgh
Institution: University of Pittsburgh
Schools and Programs: School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Degree: MPH - Master of Public Health
Thesis Type: Master Essay
Refereed: No
Date Deposited: 08 Feb 2013 15:09
Last Modified: 08 Dec 2022 19:55


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