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Feeling the future: The emotional oracle effect

Pham, MT and Lee, L and Stephen, AT (2012) Feeling the future: The emotional oracle effect. Journal of Consumer Research, 39 (3). 461 - 477. ISSN 0093-5301

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Abstract

Eight studies reveal an intriguing phenomenon: individuals who have higher trust in their feelings can predict the outcomes of future events better than individuals with lower trust in their feelings. This emotional oracle effect was found across a variety of prediction domains, including (a) the 2008 US Democratic presidential nomination, (b) movie box-office success, (c) the winner of American Idol, (d) the stock market, (e) college football, and even (f) the weather. It is mostly high trust in feelings that improves prediction accuracy rather than low trust in feelings that impairs it. However, the effect occurs only among individuals who possess sufficient background knowledge about the prediction domain, and it dissipates when the prediction criterion becomes inherently unpredictable. The authors hypothesize that the effect arises because trusting one's feelings encourages access to a "privileged window" into the vast amount of predictive information that people learn, often unconsciously, about their environments. © 2012 by JOURNAL OF CONSUMER RESEARCH, Inc.


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Details

Item Type: Article
Status: Published
Creators/Authors:
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Pham, MT
Lee, L
Stephen, ATastephen@pitt.eduASTEPHEN
Date: 1 October 2012
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Consumer Research
Volume: 39
Number: 3
Page Range: 461 - 477
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1086/663823
Schools and Programs: Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business > Business Administration
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0093-5301
Date Deposited: 08 Apr 2013 20:51
Last Modified: 02 Feb 2019 15:55
URI: http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/18080

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