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Running in place: Implications of HIV incidence estimates among urban men who have sex with men in the United States and other industrialized countries

Stall, R and Duran, L and Wisniewski, SR and Friedman, MS and Marshal, MP and McFarland, W and Guadamuz, TE and Mills, TC (2009) Running in place: Implications of HIV incidence estimates among urban men who have sex with men in the United States and other industrialized countries. AIDS and Behavior, 13 (4). 615 - 629. ISSN 1090-7165

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Attempts to document changing HIV incidence rates among MSM are compromised by issues of generalizability and statistical power. To address these issues, this paper reports annualized mean HIV incidence rates from the entire published incidence literature on MSM from Europe, North America and Australia for the period 1995-2005. Publications that met the entry criteria were coded for region of the world, sampling method and year of study. From these reports, we calculated a mean incidence rate with confidence intervals for these variables. Although no differences in mean incidence rates were found for MSM from 1995 to 2005, HIV incidence rates are lower in Australia than either North America or Europe. We calculated a mean incidence rate of 2.39% for MSM in the United States, which if sustained within a cohort of MSM, would yield HIV prevalence rate of approximately 40% at age 40. These extrapolations overlap published HIV prevalence rates for MSM younger than age 40 in the United States. HIV incidence rates in the 2-3% range will adversely affect the health of gay male communities for decades to come. This analysis suggests that greater attention should be devoted to the question of how best to design prevention interventions that will lower HIV incidence rates among gay men. © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.


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Item Type: Article
Status: Published
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Stall, Rrstall@pitt.eduRSTALL
Duran, L
Wisniewski, SRSTEVEWIS@pitt.eduSTEVEWIS
Friedman, MSmsf11@pitt.eduMSF11
Marshal, MPmpm1@pitt.eduMPM1
McFarland, W
Guadamuz, TEteg10@pitt.eduTEG10
Mills, TC
Centers: Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for LGBT Health Research
Date: 1 August 2009
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: AIDS and Behavior
Volume: 13
Number: 4
Page Range: 615 - 629
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1007/s10461-008-9509-7
Schools and Programs: Graduate School of Public Health > Behavioral and Community Health Sciences
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 1090-7165
MeSH Headings: Adult; Australia--epidemiology; Developed Countries; Europe--epidemiology; HIV Infections--epidemiology; HIV Infections--prevention & control; Homosexuality, Male; Humans; Incidence; Male; North America--epidemiology; Urban Population; Young Adult
PubMed ID: 19205867
Date Deposited: 25 Jun 2013 19:35
Last Modified: 18 May 2020 13:56


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