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Risk of Dengue for Tourists and Teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil

van Panhuis, WG and Hyun, S and Blaney, K and Marques, ETA and Coelho, GE and Siqueira, JB and Tibshirani, R and da Silva, JB and Rosenfeld, R (2014) Risk of Dengue for Tourists and Teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 8 (7). ISSN 1935-2727

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Abstract

Abstract:Background:This year, Brazil will host about 600,000 foreign visitors during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The concern of possible dengue transmission during this event has been raised given the high transmission rates reported in the past by this country.Methodology/Principal Findings:We used dengue incidence rates reported by each host city during previous years (2001-2013) to estimate the risk of dengue during the World Cup for tourists and teams. Two statistical models were used: a percentile rank (PR) and an Empirical Bayes (EB) model. Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models. Based on current ticket allocations, the mean number of expected symptomatic dengue cases ranged from 26 (PR, 10th-100th percentile: 5-334 cases) to 59 (EB, 95% credible interval: 30-77 cases) among foreign tourists but none are expected among teams. These numbers will highly depend on actual travel schedules and dengue immunity among visitors. Sensitivity analysis for both models indicated that the expected number of cases could be as low as 4 or 5 with 100,000 visitors and as high as 38 or 70 with 800,000 visitors (PR and EB, respectively).Conclusion/Significance:The risk of dengue among tourists during the World Cup is expected to be small due to immunity among the Brazil host population provided by last year's epidemic with the same DENV serotypes. Quantitative risk estimates by different groups and methodologies should be made routinely for mass gathering events. © 2014 van Panhuis et al.


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Details

Item Type: Article
Status: Published
Creators/Authors:
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
van Panhuis, WGwilbert.van.panhuis@pitt.eduWAV10
Hyun, S
Blaney, K
Marques, ETAmarques@pitt.eduMARQUES0000-0003-3826-9358
Coelho, GE
Siqueira, JB
Tibshirani, R
da Silva, JB
Rosenfeld, R
Contributors:
ContributionContributors NameEmailPitt UsernameORCID
EditorJohansson, Michael A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Centers: Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for Vaccine Research
Date: 1 January 2014
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Volume: 8
Number: 7
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003063
Schools and Programs: Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 1935-2727
Date Deposited: 24 Sep 2014 14:32
Last Modified: 22 Jun 2021 12:55
URI: http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/22998

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