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Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia

Ferguson, NM and Cummings, DAT and Cauchemez, S and Fraser, C and Riley, S and Meeyai, A and Iamsirithaworn, S and Burke, DS (2005) Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature, 437 (7056). 209 - 214. ISSN 0028-0836

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Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate. Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority. Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. We show that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8. We predict that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed. © 2005 Nature Publishing Group.


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Item Type: Article
Status: Published
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Ferguson, NM
Cummings, DAT
Cauchemez, S
Fraser, C
Riley, S
Meeyai, A
Iamsirithaworn, S
Burke, DSdonburke@pitt.eduDONBURKE
Centers: Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for Vaccine Research
Date: 8 September 2005
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: Nature
Volume: 437
Number: 7056
Page Range: 209 - 214
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1038/nature04017
Schools and Programs: Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0028-0836
Date Deposited: 05 May 2015 16:51
Last Modified: 02 Feb 2019 16:57


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