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Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Ferguson, NM and Cummings, DAT and Fraser, C and Cajka, JC and Cooley, PC and Burke, DS (2006) Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature, 442 (7101). 448 - 452. ISSN 0028-0836

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Abstract

Development of strategies for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic is now a top global public health priority. Influenza prevention and containment strategies can be considered under the broad categories of antiviral, vaccine and non-pharmaceutical (case isolation, household quarantine, school or workplace closure, restrictions on travel) measures. Mathematical models are powerful tools for exploring this complex landscape of intervention strategies and quantifying the potential costs and benefits of different options. Here we use a large-scale epidemic simulation to examine intervention options should initial containment of a novel influenza outbreak fail, using Great Britain and the United States as examples. We find that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2-3 weeks unless more than 99% effective. School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40%, but has little impact on overall attack rates, whereas case isolation or household quarantine could have a significant impact, if feasible. Treatment of clinical cases can reduce transmission, but only if antivirals are given within a day of symptoms starting. Given enough drugs for 50% of the population, household-based prophylaxis coupled with reactive school closure could reduce clinical attack rates by 40-50%. More widespread prophylaxis would be even more logistically challenging but might reduce attack rates by over 75%. Vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy. Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics. © 2006 Nature Publishing Group.


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Details

Item Type: Article
Status: Published
Creators/Authors:
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Ferguson, NM
Cummings, DAT
Fraser, C
Cajka, JC
Cooley, PC
Burke, DSdonburke@pitt.eduDONBURKE
Centers: Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for Vaccine Research
Date: 27 July 2006
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: Nature
Volume: 442
Number: 7101
Page Range: 448 - 452
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1038/nature04795
Schools and Programs: Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0028-0836
Date Deposited: 05 May 2015 16:51
Last Modified: 02 Feb 2019 16:57
URI: http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/24309

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