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Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States

Halloran, ME and Ferguson, NM and Eubank, S and Longini, IM and Cummings, DAT and Lewis, B and Xu, S and Fraser, C and Vullikanti, A and Germann, TC and Wagener, D and Beckman, R and Kadau, K and Barrett, C and Macken, CA and Burke, DS and Cooley, P (2008) Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105 (12). 4639 - 4644. ISSN 0027-8424

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Planning a response to an outbreak of a pandemic strain of influenza is a high public health priority. Three research groups using different individual-based, stochastic simulation models have examined the consequences of intervention strategies chosen in consultation with U.S. public health workers. The first goal is to simulate the effectiveness of a set of potentially feasible intervention strategies. Combinations called targeted layered containment (TLC) of influenza antiviral treatment and prophylaxis and nonpharmaceutical interventions of quarantine, isolation, school closure, community social distancing, and workplace social distancing are considered. The second goal is to examine the robustness of the results to model assumptions. The comparisons focus on a pandemic outbreak in a population similar to that of Chicago, with ≈8.6 million people. The simulations suggest that at the expected transmissibility of a pandemic strain, timely implementation of a combination of targeted household antiviral prophylaxis, and social distancing measures could substantially lower the illness attack rate before a highly efficacious vaccine could become available. Timely initiation of measures and school closure play important roles. Because of the current lack of data on which to base such models, further field research is recommended to learn more about the sources of transmission and the effectiveness of social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission. © 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.


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Item Type: Article
Status: Published
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Halloran, ME
Ferguson, NM
Eubank, S
Longini, IM
Cummings, DAT
Lewis, B
Xu, S
Fraser, C
Vullikanti, A
Germann, TC
Wagener, D
Beckman, R
Kadau, K
Barrett, C
Macken, CA
Burke, DSdonburke@pitt.eduDONBURKE
Cooley, P
Centers: Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for Vaccine Research
Date: 25 March 2008
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume: 105
Number: 12
Page Range: 4639 - 4644
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1073/pnas.0706849105
Schools and Programs: School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0027-8424
Date Deposited: 08 May 2015 14:41
Last Modified: 02 Feb 2019 16:57


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