Hay, SI and Myers, MF and Burke, DS and Vaughn, DW and Endy, T and Ananda, N and Shanks, GD and Snow, RW and Rogers, DJ
(2000)
Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 97 (16).
9335 - 9339.
ISSN 0027-8424
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Abstract
Dengue viruses and malaria protozoa are of increasing global concern in public health. The diseases caused by these pathogens often show regular seasonal patterns in incidence because of the sensitivity of their mosquito vectors to climate. Between years in endemic areas, however, there can be further significant variation in case numbers for which public health systems are generally unprepared. There is an acute need for reliable predictions of within-year and between-year epidemic events. The prerequisite for developing any system of early warning is a detailed understanding of the factors involved in epidemic genesis. In this report we discuss the potential causes of the interepidemic periods in dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bangkok and of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in a highland area of western Kenya. The alternative causes are distinguished by a retrospective analysis of two unique and contemporaneous 33-year time series of epidemiological and associated meteorological data recorded at these two sites. We conclude that intrinsic population dynamics offer the most parsimonious explanation for the observed interepidemic periods of disease in these locations.
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Details
Item Type: |
Article
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Status: |
Published |
Creators/Authors: |
Creators | Email | Pitt Username | ORCID  |
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Hay, SI | | | | Myers, MF | | | | Burke, DS | donburke@pitt.edu | DONBURKE | | Vaughn, DW | | | | Endy, T | | | | Ananda, N | | | | Shanks, GD | | | | Snow, RW | | | | Rogers, DJ | | | |
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Centers: |
Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for Vaccine Research |
Date: |
1 August 2000 |
Date Type: |
Publication |
Journal or Publication Title: |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Volume: |
97 |
Number: |
16 |
Page Range: |
9335 - 9339 |
DOI or Unique Handle: |
10.1073/pnas.97.16.9335 |
Schools and Programs: |
Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology |
Refereed: |
Yes |
ISSN: |
0027-8424 |
Date Deposited: |
08 May 2015 15:08 |
Last Modified: |
28 Oct 2017 13:56 |
URI: |
http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/24321 |
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