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Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease

Hay, SI and Myers, MF and Burke, DS and Vaughn, DW and Endy, T and Ananda, N and Shanks, GD and Snow, RW and Rogers, DJ (2000) Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 97 (16). 9335 - 9339. ISSN 0027-8424

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Dengue viruses and malaria protozoa are of increasing global concern in public health. The diseases caused by these pathogens often show regular seasonal patterns in incidence because of the sensitivity of their mosquito vectors to climate. Between years in endemic areas, however, there can be further significant variation in case numbers for which public health systems are generally unprepared. There is an acute need for reliable predictions of within-year and between-year epidemic events. The prerequisite for developing any system of early warning is a detailed understanding of the factors involved in epidemic genesis. In this report we discuss the potential causes of the interepidemic periods in dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bangkok and of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in a highland area of western Kenya. The alternative causes are distinguished by a retrospective analysis of two unique and contemporaneous 33-year time series of epidemiological and associated meteorological data recorded at these two sites. We conclude that intrinsic population dynamics offer the most parsimonious explanation for the observed interepidemic periods of disease in these locations.


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Item Type: Article
Status: Published
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Hay, SI
Myers, MF
Burke, DSdonburke@pitt.eduDONBURKE
Vaughn, DW
Endy, T
Ananda, N
Shanks, GD
Snow, RW
Rogers, DJ
Centers: Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for Vaccine Research
Date: 1 August 2000
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume: 97
Number: 16
Page Range: 9335 - 9339
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1073/pnas.97.16.9335
Schools and Programs: Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0027-8424
Date Deposited: 08 May 2015 15:08
Last Modified: 28 Oct 2017 13:56


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