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Individual-based Computational Modeling of Smallpox Epidemic Control Strategies

Burke, DS and Epstein, JM and Cummings, DAT and Parker, JI and Cline, KC and Singa, RM and Chakravarty, S (2006) Individual-based Computational Modeling of Smallpox Epidemic Control Strategies. Academic Emergency Medicine, 13 (11). 1142 - 1149. ISSN 1069-6563

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In response to concerns about possible bioterrorism, the authors developed an individual-based (or "agent-based") computational model of smallpox epidemic transmission and control. The model explicitly represents an "artificial society" of individual human beings, each implemented as a distinct object, or data structure in a computer program. These agents interact locally with one another in code-represented social units such as homes, workplaces, schools, and hospitals. Over many iterations, these microinteractions generate large-scale macroscopic phenomena of fundamental interest such as the course of an epidemic in space and time. Model variables (incubation periods, clinical disease expression, contagiousness, and physical mobility) were assigned following realistic values agreed on by an advisory group of experts on smallpox. Eight response scenarios were evaluated at two epidemic scales, one being an introduction of ten smallpox cases into a 6,000-person town and the other an introduction of 500 smallpox cases into a 50,000-person town. The modeling exercise showed that contact tracing and vaccination of household, workplace, and school contacts, along with prompt reactive vaccination of hospital workers and isolation of diagnosed cases, could contain smallpox at both epidemic scales examined. © 2006 Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.


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Item Type: Article
Status: Published
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Burke, DSdonburke@pitt.eduDONBURKE
Epstein, JM
Cummings, DAT
Parker, JI
Cline, KC
Singa, RM
Chakravarty, S
Centers: Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for Vaccine Research
Date: 1 November 2006
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: Academic Emergency Medicine
Volume: 13
Number: 11
Page Range: 1142 - 1149
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1197/j.aem.2006.07.017
Schools and Programs: School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 1069-6563
Date Deposited: 08 May 2015 15:23
Last Modified: 02 Feb 2019 16:57


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