Schwartz, Ira B and Shaw, Leah B and Cummings, Derek AT and Billings, Lora and McCrary, Marie and Burke, Donald S
(2005)
Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases.
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys, 72 (6 Pt 2).
066201 - ?.
ISSN 1539-3755
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Abstract
Multistrain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue hemorrhagic fever that outbreaks of the four serotypes occur asynchronously. Both autonomous and seasonally driven outbreaks were studied in a model containing ADE. For sufficiently small ADE, the number of infectives of each serotype synchronizes, with outbreaks occurring in phase. When the ADE increases past a threshold, the system becomes chaotic, and infectives of each serotype desynchronize. However, certain groupings of the primary and secondary infectives remain synchronized even in the chaotic regime.
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Item Type: |
Article
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Status: |
Published |
Creators/Authors: |
Creators | Email | Pitt Username | ORCID  |
---|
Schwartz, Ira B | | | | Shaw, Leah B | | | | Cummings, Derek AT | | | | Billings, Lora | | | | McCrary, Marie | | | | Burke, Donald S | donburke@pitt.edu | DONBURKE | |
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Centers: |
Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for Vaccine Research |
Date: |
December 2005 |
Date Type: |
Publication |
Journal or Publication Title: |
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys |
Volume: |
72 |
Number: |
6 Pt 2 |
Page Range: |
066201 - ? |
DOI or Unique Handle: |
10.1103/physreve.72.066201 |
Schools and Programs: |
Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology |
Refereed: |
Yes |
Uncontrolled Keywords: |
Animals, Antibodies, Viral, Antibody-Dependent Enhancement, Dengue Virus, Humans, Models, Statistical, Models, Theoretical, Neutralization Tests, Nonlinear Dynamics, Oscillometry, Seasons, Severe Dengue, Time Factors, Virus Diseases |
ISSN: |
1539-3755 |
Funders: |
NIGMS NIH HHS (U01GM070708) |
Date Deposited: |
07 May 2015 20:05 |
Last Modified: |
13 Oct 2017 18:55 |
URI: |
http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/24363 |
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