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Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases.

Schwartz, Ira B and Shaw, Leah B and Cummings, Derek AT and Billings, Lora and McCrary, Marie and Burke, Donald S (2005) Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys, 72 (6 Pt 2). 066201 - ?. ISSN 1539-3755

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Multistrain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue hemorrhagic fever that outbreaks of the four serotypes occur asynchronously. Both autonomous and seasonally driven outbreaks were studied in a model containing ADE. For sufficiently small ADE, the number of infectives of each serotype synchronizes, with outbreaks occurring in phase. When the ADE increases past a threshold, the system becomes chaotic, and infectives of each serotype desynchronize. However, certain groupings of the primary and secondary infectives remain synchronized even in the chaotic regime.


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Item Type: Article
Status: Published
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Schwartz, Ira B
Shaw, Leah B
Cummings, Derek AT
Billings, Lora
McCrary, Marie
Burke, Donald Sdonburke@pitt.eduDONBURKE
Centers: Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for Vaccine Research
Date: December 2005
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys
Volume: 72
Number: 6 Pt 2
Page Range: 066201 - ?
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1103/physreve.72.066201
Schools and Programs: Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Refereed: Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords: Animals, Antibodies, Viral, Antibody-Dependent Enhancement, Dengue Virus, Humans, Models, Statistical, Models, Theoretical, Neutralization Tests, Nonlinear Dynamics, Oscillometry, Seasons, Severe Dengue, Time Factors, Virus Diseases
ISSN: 1539-3755
Funders: NIGMS NIH HHS (U01GM070708)
Date Deposited: 07 May 2015 20:05
Last Modified: 13 Oct 2017 18:55


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