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Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outbreaks throughout the hospitals in Orange County, California

Lee, BY and McGlone, SM and Wong, KF and Yilmaz, SL and Avery, TR and Song, Y and Christie, R and Eubank, S and Brown, ST and Epstein, JM and Parker, JI and Burke, DS and Platt, R and Huang, SS (2011) Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outbreaks throughout the hospitals in Orange County, California. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology, 32 (6). 562 - 572. ISSN 0899-823X

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Background. Since hospitals in a region often share patients, an outbreak of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection in one hospital could affect other hospitals. methods. Using extensive data collected from Orange County (OC), California, we developed a detailed agent-based model to represent patient movement among all OC hospitals. Experiments simulated MRSA outbreaks in various wards, institutions, and regions. Sensitivity analysis varied lengths of stay, intraward transmission coefficients (β), MRSA loss rate, probability of patient transfer or readmission, and time to readmission. results. Each simulated outbreak eventually affected all of the hospitals in the network, with effects depending on the outbreak size and location. Increasing MRSA prevalence at a single hospital (from 5% to 15%) resulted in a 2.9% average increase in relative prevalence at all other hospitals (ranging from no effect to 46.4%). Single-hospital intensive care unit outbreaks (modeled increase from 5% to 15%) caused a 1.4% average relative increase in all other OC hospitals (ranging from no effect to 12.7%). conclusion. MRSA outbreaks may rarely be confined to a single hospital but instead may affect all of the hospitals in a region. This suggests that prevention and control strategies and policies should account for the interconnectedness of health care facilities. © 2011 by The Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America. All rights reserved.


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Item Type: Article
Status: Published
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Lee, BYbyl1@pitt.eduBYL1
McGlone, SM
Wong, KF
Yilmaz, SL
Avery, TR
Song, Y
Christie, R
Eubank, S
Brown, ST
Epstein, JM
Parker, JI
Burke, DSdonburke@pitt.eduDONBURKE
Platt, R
Huang, SS
Centers: Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for Vaccine Research
Date: 1 June 2011
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology
Volume: 32
Number: 6
Page Range: 562 - 572
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1086/660014
Schools and Programs: Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0899-823X
Date Deposited: 07 May 2015 19:59
Last Modified: 02 Feb 2019 16:57


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