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Dynamic Simulation of Crime Perpetration and Reporting to Examine Community Intervention Strategies

Yonas, MA and Burke, JG and Brown, ST and Borrebach, JD and Garland, R and Burke, DS and Grefenstette, JJ (2013) Dynamic Simulation of Crime Perpetration and Reporting to Examine Community Intervention Strategies. Health Education and Behavior, 40 (1 SUPP). ISSN 1090-1981

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Objective. To develop a conceptual computational agent-based model (ABM) to explore community-wide versus spatially focused crime reporting interventions to reduce community crime perpetrated by youth. Method. Agents within the model represent individual residents and interact on a two-dimensional grid representing an abstract nonempirically grounded community setting. Juvenile agents are assigned initial random probabilities of perpetrating a crime and adults are assigned random probabilities of witnessing and reporting crimes. The agents' behavioral probabilities modify depending on the individual's experience with criminal behavior and punishment, and exposure to community crime interventions. Cost-effectiveness analyses assessed the impact of activating different percentages of adults to increase reporting and reduce community crime activity. Community-wide interventions were compared with spatially focused interventions, in which activated adults were focused in areas of highest crime prevalence. Results. The ABM suggests that both community-wide and spatially focused interventions can be effective in reducing overall offenses, but their relative effectiveness may depend on the intensity and cost of the interventions. Although spatially focused intervention yielded localized reductions in crimes, such interventions were shown to move crime to nearby communities. Community-wide interventions can achieve larger reductions in overall community crime offenses than spatially focused interventions, as long as sufficient resources are available. Conclusion. The ABM demonstrates that community-wide and spatially focused crime strategies produce unique intervention dynamics influencing juvenile crime behaviors through the decisions and actions of community adults. It shows how such models might be used to investigate community-supported crime intervention programs by integrating community input and expertise and provides a simulated setting for assessing dimensions of cost comparison and intervention effect sustainability. ABM illustrates how intervention models might be used to investigate community-supported crime intervention programs. © 2013 Society for Public Health Education.


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Item Type: Article
Status: Published
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Yonas, MAyonas@pitt.eduYONAS
Brown, ST
Borrebach, JD
Garland, RRIG11@pitt.eduRIG110000-0003-3746-4696
Burke, DSdonburke@pitt.eduDONBURKE
Grefenstette, JJgref@pitt.eduGREF
Centers: Other Centers, Institutes, Offices, or Units > Center for Vaccine Research
Date: 30 December 2013
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: Health Education and Behavior
Volume: 40
Number: 1 SUPP
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1177/1090198113493090
Schools and Programs: School of Public Health > Behavioral and Community Health Sciences
School of Public Health > Biostatistics
School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 1090-1981
Date Deposited: 07 May 2015 18:56
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2023 10:55


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