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Planning For Failure

Steel, Robert (2016) Planning For Failure. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Pittsburgh. (Unpublished)

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Sometimes I not only judge that P, but I also have some further “higher¬-order” evidence about my reliability when it comes to this sort of judgment. Perhaps I make an arithmetical judgment, but at the same time I have evidence that I am drunk and so arithmetically unreliable. I argue that the rational response in such a situation is to calibrate one’s confidence in P to the level suggested by one’s higher-¬order evidence—in this particular case, however confident I would be in P just given the description “I judged that P, drunkenly.” As a special case, this “calibrationist” doctrine entails a conciliatory view of peer disagreement. Some have found conciliatory views to be disturbing, taking them to collapse into psychologism and, at the limit, skepticism. I develop a conciliatory view which need be neither of these things, which is fortunate, since I also argue it is correct.


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Item Type: University of Pittsburgh ETD
Status: Unpublished
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Steel, Robertrjs86@pitt.eduRJS86
ETD Committee:
TitleMemberEmail AddressPitt UsernameORCID
Committee CoChairSchafer,
Committee CoChairShaw,
Committee MemberMichael,
Committee MemberSetiya,
Committee MemberGupta,
Date: 3 October 2016
Date Type: Publication
Defense Date: 16 May 2016
Approval Date: 3 October 2016
Submission Date: 12 July 2016
Access Restriction: No restriction; Release the ETD for access worldwide immediately.
Number of Pages: 157
Institution: University of Pittsburgh
Schools and Programs: Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences > Philosophy
Degree: PhD - Doctor of Philosophy
Thesis Type: Doctoral Dissertation
Refereed: Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords: Epistemology, Higher Order Evidence, Peer Disagreement, Calibrationism, Epistemic Planning
Date Deposited: 03 Oct 2016 19:02
Last Modified: 15 Nov 2016 14:34


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