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The association of climate, socioeconomic factors and recent incidence on the cyclical dengue epidemic in Thailand, 2013

Taweewigyakarn, Pantila (2017) The association of climate, socioeconomic factors and recent incidence on the cyclical dengue epidemic in Thailand, 2013. Master Essay, University of Pittsburgh.

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Abstract

In 2013, Thailand experienced a cyclical dengue epidemic which caused the highest incidence compared to the previous six years. Since targeting the areas at risk of the next dengue epidemic is of public health relevance, we demonstrate potential factors that affected the provincial dengue incidence during that period. We collected data on dengue incidence in 77 provinces and determined the association between dengue incidence and independent variables including temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, rain days, average household income, average years of school education, urban area rates, and percentage of access to tap water. We also adjusted for the previous dengue incidence between 2009 and 2012. Spatial regression analysis revealed that the number of total rain days during the rainy season was positively associated with dengue incidence. The incidence rates in 2010 and 2012 were also of borderline significance. None of the socioeconomic factors was significant. The subgroup analysis among children under age 15 showed similar results. Additional analyses on the non-dengue seasons showed the incidence during January to April was associated with the incidence in 2012, while the incidence during October to December was associated with the urban area rates. Moreover, we found the serotype switching from DENV1 and DENV2 to DENV3 in 2013. Based on our findings, the provinces with more rain days tend to have higher dengue incidence, especially if they had high dengue incidence in the last cyclical epidemic. We recommend that those provinces should prepare for the next dengue cyclical epidemic by strengthening dengue control measures prior to and during the rainy season.


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Details

Item Type: Other Thesis, Dissertation, or Long Paper (Master Essay)
Status: Unpublished
Creators/Authors:
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Taweewigyakarn, Pantilapat45@pitt.edupat45
Contributors:
ContributionContributors NameEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Committee ChairTalbott, Evelyneot1@pitt.edueot1UNSPECIFIED
Committee MemberTerry, Marthamaterry@pitt.edumaterryUNSPECIFIED
Date: June 2017
Date Type: Submission
Number of Pages: 84
Institution: University of Pittsburgh
Schools and Programs: Graduate School of Public Health > Epidemiology
Degree: MPH - Master of Public Health
Thesis Type: Master Essay
Refereed: Yes
Date Deposited: 02 Oct 2017 17:41
Last Modified: 02 Oct 2017 17:41
URI: http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/32346

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