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Multinomial logistic regression and prediction accuracy for interval-censored competing risks data

Shuai, Yongli (2018) Multinomial logistic regression and prediction accuracy for interval-censored competing risks data. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Pittsburgh. (Unpublished)

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Interval-censored competing risks data are ubiquitous in biomedical research fields. The direct parametric modeling of the cumulative incidence functional (CIF) is appealing due to its intuitive probability interpretation and easy implementation. This dissertation is to study and extend the multinomial logistic regression (MLR) model to interval-censored competing risks data. The MLR model naturally guarantees the additivity property of the event-specific probabilities under competing risks. A cubic B-Spline-based sieve method is then adopted to add flexibility into the proposed MLR model. The second study objective is to develop the prediction error (PE) as a model-free metric to evaluate and validate the prediction accuracy for interval-censored competing risks data. Adopting the method of the pseudo-value estimator, this dissertation work proposes a novel approach to estimate the PE under the interval-censored competing risks setting. Simulation studies are presented to assess performance of the MLR model and the PE in different scenarios. The proposed methods were then applied to a community-based study of cognitive impairment in aging population.
Public Health Significance: Interval-censored competing risks data could be often encountered in biomedical research that is essential for public health, such as rehabilitation and pain medicine. The proposed methods provide precise yet flexible modeling of such data with straightforward interpretation on how predictors affect the CIF, as well as useful tools to evaluate and validate the prediction accuracy of the developed models.


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Item Type: University of Pittsburgh ETD
Status: Unpublished
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Shuai, Yonglishuai@pitt.edushuai
ETD Committee:
TitleMemberEmail AddressPitt UsernameORCID
Committee ChairJeong, Jongjjeong@pitt.edujjeong
Committee CoChairCheng, Yuyucheng@pitt.eduyucheng
Committee MemberDing, Yingyingding@pitt.eduyingding
Committee MemberChang, Chung-Chouchangj@pitt.educhangj
Date: 30 January 2018
Date Type: Publication
Defense Date: 8 December 2017
Approval Date: 30 January 2018
Submission Date: 25 November 2017
Access Restriction: 3 year -- Restrict access to University of Pittsburgh for a period of 3 years.
Number of Pages: 79
Institution: University of Pittsburgh
Schools and Programs: School of Public Health > Biostatistics
Degree: PhD - Doctor of Philosophy
Thesis Type: Doctoral Dissertation
Refereed: Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords: Cumulative incidence function; Parametric model; Odds ratios; B-Spline; Prediction error.
Date Deposited: 30 Jan 2018 22:50
Last Modified: 01 Jan 2021 06:15


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