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Time Series Analysis of Unconventional Natural Gas Production in Southwestern PA

Li, Jenna Dorothy (2022) Time Series Analysis of Unconventional Natural Gas Production in Southwestern PA. Master's Thesis, University of Pittsburgh. (Unpublished)

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Background: With an increase of hydraulic fracking in southwestern Pennsylvania, it is worthwhile to investigate the patterns that determine unconventional and conventional natural gas production, especially the correlation between natural gas production and time.

Methods: Time series analysis using ARIMA and SARIMA models were used to explain and forecast the next three years of total unconventional natural gas production from all counties in Pennsylvania, 8 counties from southwestern Pennsylvania combined, and the 8 counties from southwestern Pennsylvania individually. These data include monthly unconventional natural well gas production from years 2015-2020. ARIMA and SARIMA models were also fit for yearly conventional natural well gas production which covered years 1980 to 2020. Similar models were also fit for yearly unconventional natural well gas productions from years 2004 to 2020.

Results: For monthly data, appropriate time series models were found to significantly explain and forecast future production. Additionally, for some counties the models were able to forecast local periods of high gas production by the month. Time series models for yearly gas production were found to be unsatisfactory due to lack of data.

Conclusion: Forecasts for an increase of unconventional natural gas development in the next three years was found for all PA counties combined, the 8 southwestern PA counties combined, and in individual counties of Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Green, and Washington. Counties Armstrong, Fayette, and Westmoreland are predicted to produce the same amount of unconventional natural gas or to decrease production.

Public Health Significance: This preliminary analysis shows that time series is a viable method to explain the time trends found in unconventional natural gas production data. Understanding the correlation between these data and time will help with further investigations between unconventional natural gas production and health outcomes.

Keywords: Unconventional natural gas production, time series, ARIMA models, SARIMA models


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Item Type: University of Pittsburgh ETD
Status: Unpublished
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Li, Jenna DorothyJEL180@pitt.eduJEL1800000-0002-7987-1022
ETD Committee:
TitleMemberEmail AddressPitt UsernameORCID
Thesis AdvisorYouk, Adaayouk@pitt.eduayouk
Committee MemberBuchanich, Jeanine M.jeanine@pitt.edujeanine
Committee MemberCarlson, Jenna C.jnc35@pitt.edujnc35
Committee MemberTalbott, EvelynEOT1@pitt.eduEOT1
Date: 12 May 2022
Date Type: Publication
Defense Date: 25 April 2022
Approval Date: 12 May 2022
Submission Date: 29 April 2022
Access Restriction: No restriction; Release the ETD for access worldwide immediately.
Number of Pages: 42
Institution: University of Pittsburgh
Schools and Programs: School of Public Health > Biostatistics
Degree: MS - Master of Science
Thesis Type: Master's Thesis
Refereed: Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords: Unconventional natural gas production, time series, ARIMA models, SARIMA models
Date Deposited: 12 May 2022 13:26
Last Modified: 12 May 2022 13:26


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