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Forecasting Seasonal Vibrio parahaemolyticus Concentrations in New England Shellfish

Hartwick, Meghan A. and Urquhart, Erin A. and Whistler, Cheryl A. and Cooper, Vaughn S. and Naumova, Elena N. and Jones, Stephen H. (2019) Forecasting Seasonal Vibrio parahaemolyticus Concentrations in New England Shellfish. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16 (22). p. 4341. ISSN 1660-4601

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Seafood-borne Vibrio parahaemolyticus illness is a global public health issue facing resource managers and the seafood industry. The recent increase in shellfish-borne illnesses in the Northeast United States has resulted in the application of intensive management practices based on a limited understanding of when and where risks are present. We aim to determine the contribution of factors that affect V. parahaemolyticus concentrations in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) using ten years of surveillance data for environmental and climate conditions in the Great Bay Estuary of New Hampshire from 2007 to 2016. A time series analysis was applied to analyze V. parahaemolyticus concentrations and local environmental predictors and develop predictive models. Whereas many environmental variables correlated with V. parahaemolyticus concentrations, only a few retained significance in capturing trends, seasonality and data variability. The optimal predictive model contained water temperature and pH, photoperiod, and the calendar day of study. The model enabled relatively accurate seasonality-based prediction of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations for 2014–2016 based on the 2007–2013 dataset and captured the increasing trend in extreme values of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations. The developed method enables the informative tracking of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations in coastal ecosystems and presents a useful platform for developing area-specific risk forecasting models.


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Item Type: Article
Status: Published
CreatorsEmailPitt UsernameORCID
Hartwick, Meghan A.
Urquhart, Erin A.
Whistler, Cheryl A.
Cooper, Vaughn S.vaughn.cooper@pitt.eduvaughn.cooper0000-0001-7726-0765
Naumova, Elena N.0000-0002-9562-4734
Jones, Stephen H.
Date: 7 November 2019
Date Type: Publication
Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Volume: 16
Number: 22
Publisher: MDPI AG
Page Range: p. 4341
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.3390/ijerph16224341
Schools and Programs: School of Medicine > Microbiology and Molecular Genetics
Refereed: Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords: vibrio parahaemolyticus, seasonality, seafood illness, forecasting, climate change
ISSN: 1660-4601
Official URL:
Funders: National Science Foundation, USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Hatch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration College Sea Grant program, New Hampshire Sea Grant program, National Science Foundation - International Research Experiences for Students, U.S.-Indonesian Research Experience for Students on Sustainable Adaptation of Coastal Areas to Environmental Change
Article Type: Research Article
Date Deposited: 06 Jun 2022 15:36
Last Modified: 06 Jun 2022 15:36


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