Using Delphi and Q-Methodology to Predict the Future of Nonproliferation and Multilateral Security Cooperation Around the North Korea Nuclear ProblemColetti, Kelly Voss (2024) Using Delphi and Q-Methodology to Predict the Future of Nonproliferation and Multilateral Security Cooperation Around the North Korea Nuclear Problem. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Pittsburgh. (Unpublished)
AbstractThis study explores the intricacies of policy-making decisions regarding denuclearization efforts in North Korea through the lens of expert analysis. Utilizing a novel research methodology blending Q-methodology and Delphi rounds, the study examines the convergence and divergence of expert opinions across various sectors and countries. Through rigorous data analysis, the study identifies key variables of influence and consensus among experts, shedding light on factors that could affect the success of denuclearization initiatives. The findings highlight the importance of multilateral cooperation and targeted policy interventions in achieving denuclearization goals. While experts acknowledge the role of regional actors, particularly China, in influencing North Korea's behavior, there is also recognition of the need for tailored approaches to address specific challenges, such as cybersecurity threats and sanctions enforcement. Moreover, the study underscores the significance of information sharing and scenario-based planning in mitigating uncertainties and enhancing policy effectiveness. By harnessing the collective wisdom of experts and promoting dialogue among stakeholders, policymakers can develop comprehensive strategies that consider a range of possibilities and foster regional stability. Overall, this research contributes valuable insights to the field of policy-making by offering evidence-based recommendations for addressing one of the most pressing security challenges of our time: the denuclearization of North Korea. Share
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