Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility
Danz, David and Vesterlund, Lise and Wilson, Alistair J
(2022)
Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility.
American Economic Review.
(In Press)
Abstract
Subjective beliefs are crucial for economic inference, yet behavior can challenge the elicitation. We propose that belief elicitation should be incentive compatible not only theoretically but also in a de facto behavioral sense. To demonstrate, we show that the binarized scoring rule, a state-of-the-art elicitation, violates two weak conditions for behavioral incentive compatibility: (i) within the elicitation, information on the incentives increases deviations from truthful reporting; and (ii) in a pure choice over the set of incentives, most deviate from the theorized maximizer. Moreover, we document that deviations are systematic and center-biased, and that the elicited beliefs substantially distort inference.
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Article
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In Press |
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Date: |
February 2022 |
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Acceptance |
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American Economic Review |
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Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences > Economics Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences > Economics > Economics Working Papers |
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Yes |
References: |
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Article Type: |
Research Article |
Date Deposited: |
28 Feb 2022 19:14 |
Last Modified: |
28 Feb 2022 19:14 |
URI: |
http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/42270 |
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