Balla, Egest
(2024)
Spillover Effects of US-China Trade Conflict on Third-Countries: Export and Labor
Market Implications on Vietnam.
Master's Thesis, University of Pittsburgh.
(Unpublished)
Abstract
This project analyzes the spillover effects of the 2018-2019 US-China trade conflict on
Vietnam's exports and labor market. As the two largest trading partners of Vietnam imposed
tariffs on each other's imports, Vietnam emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries through
export substitution and trade diversion. The recent trade war between the world's two largest
economies provides an opportunity to study such third-country impacts. The analysis tests three
main hypotheses using difference-in-differences models: (1) US tariffs on Chinese goods
increased Vietnam's export values to the US in affected product categories; (2) Vietnam's export
values to the rest of the world also grew for targeted products; and (3) employment, hours
worked, and wages rose more for Vietnamese industries exposed to the trade war compared to
less exposed ones. Identification relies on the timing of US tariff hikes on China during
2018-2019 serving as an exogenous trade policy shock. Controls for industry, product, origin,
and time effects account for possible endogeneity concerns. The post-treatment period is limited
to 2018-2019 due to the distortionary impact of COVID-19. Vietnam makes for an insightful
case study due to its deep integration and direct competition with China across several export
industries. This project contributes to research on trade policy spillovers and emerging market
reactions to external shocks. It also highlights Vietnam's economic strategy of harnessing
opportunities from China's transition up the value chain to expand its export manufacturing base.
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Details
| Item Type: |
University of Pittsburgh ETD
|
| Status: |
Unpublished |
| Creators/Authors: |
|
| ETD Committee: |
| Title | Member | Email Address | Pitt Username | ORCID |
|---|
| Committee Chair | Lewin, Michael | | | | | Committee Member | Weber, Jeremy | | | | | Committee Member | Palmer, Erica | | | |
|
| Date: |
3 June 2024 |
| Date Type: |
Publication |
| Defense Date: |
18 April 2024 |
| Approval Date: |
3 June 2024 |
| Submission Date: |
30 April 2024 |
| Access Restriction: |
No restriction; Release the ETD for access worldwide immediately. |
| Number of Pages: |
26 |
| Institution: |
University of Pittsburgh |
| Schools and Programs: |
Graduate School of Public and International Affairs > Public and International Affairs |
| Degree: |
MPIA - Master of Public and International Affairs |
| Thesis Type: |
Master's Thesis |
| Refereed: |
Yes |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: |
n/a |
| Date Deposited: |
03 Jun 2024 14:21 |
| Last Modified: |
03 Jun 2024 14:21 |
| URI: |
http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/46367 |
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