Dash, Denver
(2003)
Caveats for Causal Reasoning with Equilibrium Models.
Doctoral Dissertation, University of Pittsburgh.
(Unpublished)
Abstract
This thesis raises objections to the use of causal reasoning with equilibrium models. I consider two operators that are used to transform models: the {em Do} operator for modeling manipulation and the {em Equilibration} operator for modeling a system that has achieved equilibrium. I introduce a property of a causal model called the {em EMC Property} that is true iff the {em Do} operator commutes with the {em Equilibration} operator. I prove that not all models obey the EMC property, and I demonstrate empirically that when inferring a causal model from data, the learned model will not support causal reasoning if the EMC property is not obeyed. I find sufficient conditions for models to violate and not to violate the EMC property. In addition, I show that there exists a class of models that violate EMC and possess a set of variables whose manipulation will cause an instability in the system. All dynamic models in this class possess feedback, although I do not prove that feedback is a necessary or a sufficient condition for EMC violation. I define the {em Structural Stability Principle} which provides a necessary graphical criterion for stability in causal models. I will argue that the models in this class are quite common given typical assumptions about causal relations.
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| Item Type: |
University of Pittsburgh ETD
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| Status: |
Unpublished |
| Creators/Authors: |
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| ETD Committee: |
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| Date: |
23 May 2003 |
| Date Type: |
Completion |
| Defense Date: |
18 March 2003 |
| Approval Date: |
23 May 2003 |
| Submission Date: |
7 May 2003 |
| Access Restriction: |
No restriction; Release the ETD for access worldwide immediately. |
| Institution: |
University of Pittsburgh |
| Schools and Programs: |
Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences > Intelligent Systems |
| Degree: |
PhD - Doctor of Philosophy |
| Thesis Type: |
Doctoral Dissertation |
| Refereed: |
Yes |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: |
Bayesian networks; causality; Do operator; dynamics; feedback; structural equation models |
| Other ID: |
http://etd.library.pitt.edu:80/ETD/available/etd-05072003-102145/, etd-05072003-102145 |
| Date Deposited: |
10 Nov 2011 19:43 |
| Last Modified: |
15 Nov 2016 13:43 |
| URI: |
http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/id/eprint/7811 |
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